Blog: a report from Nicholas Stern's Lionel Robbins Memorial Lectures 2012

Climate Change and the New Industrial Revolution - What we risk and how we should cast the economics and ethics

Arriving to the lecture half an hour before the start, I thought I’d have sufficient time to get in easily and find a seat.  However, I was greeted with a long queue, which was indicative of its prestige.  Packed out, this was a lecture, as part of series, in memory of Lionel Robins, the Head of Economics of LSE for 30 years and was introduced by Judith Rees, a Director of the LSE.

Professor Lord Nick Stern, a self-declared academic in the economics of political change, announced the series as being picked since it was around 5 years since the Stern Review.  ‘The effect of inaction is enormous and action manageable’ was how the topic was introduced with the side line that ‘we’re in pretty dangerous territory even after the agreements from Copenhagen, Cancun and Durban’.  He was incredibly precise and informative from the beginning and strong in the belief that the issue of climate change is tied with poverty, risk management and values, and change will only happen with political will.

He has separated the 3 lecture series into 5 parts, of which we covered two: 1. Science, scale, risks and dangers of delay. 2. Scale of Ethics.  The science provided a summary of the evolution of thought in regards to climate science; Joseph Fourier (1827) understood that heat was saved by the atmosphere, John Tyndall (1861) discovered what gases contribute to the greenhouse effect, Svante Arrhenius (1896) modelled the impact of increased greenhouse gases, through to modern understandings of climate. 

The model Stern works to is the concept of ‘greenhouse gas stock’; at the moment we are at around 445 parts per million of CO₂ equivalent greenhouse gases (ppm GHG), we contribute 2.5 ppm GHG per year therefore in a hundred years we’ll be well over 750ppm GHG which will likely result in a 5^oC rise in global temperature.  Risks are high was the message; even with current projections after Copenhagen, Cancun and Durban, we’re set for a rise to 600ppm GHG resulting in a 25% chance of a 4^oC and 50% chance of a 2^oC rise in global temperature.  It was summarised by the fact that even in the 250,000 years or so since the human species have evolved we have only experienced a 1^oC change up or down from current global mean temperatures.  It is likely Southern Europe will become desert and areas such as the Nile Delta and Bangladesh will be flooded without further political change.  What is required is reduced emissions of GHGs from 2020, which was illustrated by a graph by Bowen and Ranger (2009) [pdf].

The ethics of inaction were unjustified by a type 1 and type 2 model as well as a statement that ‘our values shouldn’t be justified just by markets’ (AK Sen (1999 p.80)).  But it is clear that Stern sticks to consequentialism therefore inaction is not an option as the outcomes from this are not economically viable.  I was lost on the concepts of discount rates and the idea of stochastic optimum growth models but these were dismissed as not a method to deal with the problem, Stern was clear; we should keep levels at or below current levels. But who should have ‘flow rights to carbon space’ and should there be intergeneration equity in carbon production. The idea that the global economy will grow by a factor of 3 in the next two decades with the subsequent magnitude of reduction GHG production being a factor of 7 didn’t provide solutions to the problem.

Stern believes that an ‘industrial revolution’ is required to deal with climate change but didn’t tackle societal change and politics, which I never thought he would.  The next two lectures will cover how to achieve change and stories from the many climate change summits Stern has attended.  I was immensely impressed with Lord Stern’s knowledge and ability to deliver an incredibly condensed lecture and would highly recommend listening to the lecture online and if possible attending one of the next two lectures coming up today (22/2/12) or tomorrow (23/2/12).

 Thomas Beckett, MSc Environmental Science: Legislation and Management