Professor Suzanne A Leroy

Past environmental changes: climate changes and natural hazards

Professor Suzanne Leroy is a palynologist working on sequences ranging from the Pliocene to the present, in the Mediterranean area, N. Africa (Mauritania and Egypt), SW (Caspian Sea and Karabogaz Gol) and central Asia (Issyk-Kul). She works on lake and marine sediment as well as on bat guano and honey. She has led an ICSU conference programme on "Environmental catastrophes and human responses". She has also worked on an EU (RELIEF) project, a Leverhulme Trust one and NATO one on "Earthquake limnology" in Turkey. The British Academy has awarded her a grant to work on the impact of earthquakes on agriculture during the Early Byzantine times as seen from laminites from the Dead Sea. She is a member of the editorial board of the journal Quaternary International. She is the focus leader of the “Hazards and humans” group in the TERPRO commission of INQUA and a member of the Palaeoecology and Human Evolution Commission of INQUA.

Director: Catastrophic & Environmental Change Research Group

General Interests

• Glacial refugia for trees in Europe and SW Asia : pollen data and climatic models
• Global warming and species distribution
• Sea-level changes, pollen and dinoflagellate cysts in the Caspian Sea region
• Palynology, Palaeoecology and environmental reconstruction
• Rapid climatic and geohazard events, and societal response
• Climate history from lacustrine sediment in the Mediterranean and south-west Asia
• Earthquake limnology: Holocene seismic signature in lakes along the North Anatolian Fault
• The last 3000 years climate history of the Near-East
• The yearly laminated Lateglacial in 2 maar lakes of the Eifel
• The last 95 ka in Central Italy : a multidisciplinary study of Lago de Vico
• Vegetation successions caused by Milankovitch cycles from 2.6 to 1.0 Ma, an INQUA project
• Plio-Pleistocene lacustrine sediments in S. France and NE Spain
• Steps Toward Drier Climatic Conditions In North-Western Africa During The Upper Pliocene (with Lydie Dupont)
• Melissopalynology: detection of fraud in honey, labelling for geographical or plant (monospecific) origins.
• Palynology of bat guano from Ogoff Draenen, an extensive Welsh cave system.

Qualifications

• 1990: Doctorate in sciences at Université Catholique de Louvain, 'Paléoclimats plio-pléistocènes en Catalogne et en Languedoc d'après la palynologie de formations lacustres' (Plio-Pleistocene palaeoclimates in Catalonia and Languedoc from palynology of lacustrine formations)(LPGD).
• 1986: Diploma of 'Cycle inférieur en espagnol de la Chambre de Commerce', Brussels.
• 1984: General Administration for Cooperation and Development Diploma (professional training to work in developing countries), Belgian Foreign Office, Brussels.
• 1980-1982: Licence in Geographical Sciences, at Université Catholique of Louvain, Belgium. Thesis in Biogeography: 'Préliminaires à l'étude des distributions écologiques et géographiques du complexe spécifique Camisia segnis (Acari, Oribatida)' (Preliminary study of the ecological and geographical distributions of the specific complex Camisia segnis (Acari, Oribatida)).
• 1978-1980: Candidature in Geographical Sciences, Facultés Universitaires Notre-Dame de la Paix, Namur, Belgium.
• 1978: Proficiency, diploma of English Language, in 10 months, Cambridge, UK.

Career

• since 2000: Professor of Geography and Earth Sciences at Brunel University (West London), UK
• 1995-1999: Lectureship at the centre for Palaeoecology, at Queen's University, Belfast, UK
• 1993 to 1995: Associate director of the core project office of PAGES/IGBP (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme) at University of Berne, Switzerland
• 1991 to 1993: post-doctoral position funded by SPPS-Global Change-PAGES project, at Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium
• 1990 (2 months): post-doctoral position on EEC contract: EPOCH, at UCL, Belgium (Global Changes)
• 1990 - 1991 (7 + 3 months): post-doctoral position in the climate project of BMFT, at the Institute of Palynology, Göttingen, and Institute of Geology of Kiel, Germany.
• in 1986 and in 1987 (2 x 2 months): short-term visiting fellow, Smithsonian Institution, Washington D.C., USA. Laboratories of sedimentology and paleobotany
• Research fellow (funding doctoral research) from 09.1982 to 03.1990 including:
  • 18 months: Research fellowship from EEC at Laboratoire de Palynologie de Montpellier, France.
  • 3 years: Research fellowship from 'Institut pour l'Encouragement de la Recherche Scientifique en Industrie et Agriculture' (IRSIA), Belgium.
• 1982 to 1983 (6 months): Administrative training at the Commission of the EC, Brussels, section D.G.XII-G-1: benthic ecology

Research Interests

Research Activity

A. Ongoing projects

1. April to September 2011, BP Exploration (Caspian Sea) Ltd, "Pilot biostratigraphy study of the productive Series of Azerbaijan", PI.
   
   Description:
   
   The oil and gas producing Productive Series of Azerbaijan has been analysed in great detail for biostratigraphy, especially palynology, over the last 10 years or more. A large amount of data is now available. The main fluvio-lacustrine depositional processes are now largely understood, and fairly precise interpretations of depositional environment for any given sample / sample set or well section can be made. Despite these advances, no significant attempt has been made to fully scrutinize the various data sets using statistical / multi-variate methods. This proposal is to carry out a detailed statistical analysis of all available data sets from the Pliocene Productive Series. The results will provide a very detailed and objective assessment of the available data and provide data relevant to the following factors:
   
   a) overall data quality and general stratigraphic observations
   b) "fingerprinting" of main depositional units ("formations")
   c) testing and refinement of existing palynofacies / depositional models
   d) pattern recognition based on whole datasets / sub-sets, which may lead to improved well-to-well correlation
   e) possible sediment provenance recognition based on detailed analysis of reworked microfossils
   f) recognition and interpretation of patterns of deposition resulting from climate / lake-level change, or other possible forcing mechanisms such as Milankovitch cyclicities.
   
   
2. February 2011 to January 2012, British Council, BIRAX, British Israeli partnership, "Resolving the deposition pattern of the Dead Sea laminae and its implication for understanding hydro-climatic short-term variations in the Levant", first PI, co-PI is R. Bookman.
   
   Description:
   
   Laminated sediments provide us with natural archives of high-resolution palaeo-climate and palaeoenvironmental records. In most lakes around the world fine-laminated sequences were proven to be annual deposits that can be used to establish varve-based chronologies. Large portions of the Dead-Sea Basin Quaternary sections are comprised of mm-scale laminations of dark-detrital and white-carbonate laminae couplets that were deposited in a climate-controlled lacustrine environment.
   
   We hypothesize these laminae couplets represent brief flash-floods events delivering suspended fine sediments into the lake followed by chemical deposition rather than an annual cycle. It is critical to resolve the laminae temporal resolution in order to correctly interpret climatic trends and chronologies; therefore we propose to use pollen analysis to determine the laminae seasonality.
   
   Pollen grains found in lacustrine sediments are independent proxies for seasonality as the pollen "rain"² is controlled exclusively by flowering periods. The origin of pollen in sediment sample is usually the combination of air (air-borne pollen) and water transport (water-borne pollen). We propose here to reveal the seasonal resolution of the Dead Sea Basin laminae by using combined pollen identification and taphonomy (mode of preservation and of transport) to reveal the intra- and inter-annual deposition events.
   
   Samples for pollen and thin-sections (structure of the laminae) will be collected from continuous lacustrine sequences deposited during two Late Holocene Dead Sea high-stands and from modern flash-floods. The combined sedimentological and pollen information will contribute to the understanding of the laminae deposition events, the hydrological and limnological processes involved and to the seasonal meteorological control.
   
   Resolving the flash-flood frequency record will allow us to asses historical and pre-historical meteorological conditions, and to connect it to regional climatic variability. Our analysis bears important lessons for sustainable planning of future environmental challenges that must be transferred to (and used by) water resources managers in modern Near East societies. periods. The origin of pollen in sediment sample is usually the combination of air (air-borne pollen) and water transport (water-borne pollen). We propose here to reveal the seasonal resolution of the Dead Sea Basin laminae by using combined pollen identification and taphonomy (mode of preservation and of transport) to reveal the intra- and inter-annual deposition events. Samples for pollen and thin-sections (structure of the laminae) will be collected from continuous lacustrine sequences deposited during two Late Holocene Dead Sea high-stands and from modern flash-floods. The combined sedimentological and pollen information will contribute to the understanding of the laminae deposition events, the hydrological and limnological processes involved and to the seasonal meteorological control.
   
   Resolving the flash-flood frequency record will allow us to asses historical and pre-historical meteorological conditions, and to connect it to regional climatic variability. Our analysis bears important lessons for sustainable planning of future environmental challenges that must be transferred to (and used by) water resources managers in modern Near East societies.
   
   
3. November 2010 to October 2011: British Academy, small research grant, "From the point of view of an archaeologist, can Triticum urartu be identified by pollen analysis?", PI.
   
   Description:
   
   The wild wheat, Urartu, has only relatively recently been discovered, because the plant phenology does not allow distinguishing it easily from Einkorn wheat.
   
   The pollen morphology of Urartu is totally unknown. Its study may revolutionise the Neolithic history of domestication of wheat in the Middle East as Urartu may have been domesticated. Preliminary study on wild and cultivated wheats genetically well identified by the Norwegian University of Life Sciences was undertaken here by light microscopy and by SEM. Our results indicate a very good potential to distinguish the pollen morphology of Urartu from other species. Now we need to use the phase contract microscope and the SEM as well as further light microscopy on a sufficient number of acetolysed pollen grains to obtain statistically valid data and to establish identification criteria useful for archaeological investigations.
   
   
4. June 2010-May 2014: Marie Curie IRSES CLIMSEAS "Climate Change and Inland Seas: Phenomena, Feedback and Uncertainties. The Physical Science Basis" co PI.
   
   This project deals with climate change in inland sea areas, which are sensitive environments capable of providing key information about global climate change. Given the resolution of current global (~ 110 km) and regional (~10 km) climate models, inland seas are starting to be significant to modelling. Their dynamics and vulnerabilities have their own specificities in comparison with lakes and oceans, and because sea-level variations can greatly affect their surface area, they can also intrude onto the land surface component. This is the case with the Aral Sea, whose surface area variation during the last 40 years is "visible" on current climate models, not to mention regional climate models.
   
   The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (AR4) considers two primary types of uncertainties: a) value uncertainties which arise from the incomplete determination of particular values or results, for example, when data are inaccurate or not fully representative of the phenomenon of interest and b) Structural uncertainties which arise from an incomplete understanding of the processes that control particular values or results. Following the international scientific community's move towards intensification of large scale approaches, progress has been made in understanding how climate is changing in space and time.
   
   However, the attention paid in the AR4 report to uncertainties now highlights the need to keep focusing on small scale key processes and to sample regions with low data coverage. This is the core our proposal.
   
   The expertise of the partners involved in this proposal ranges from the large- to small-scale dynamics of natural water bodies and atmosphere, including a palaeoclimatic perspective. Methodological approaches are complementary, covering field and laboratory experimental works and numerical modelling.
   
   Given this context, the main objective of the joint exchange programme between the beneficiaries and partner organisations is:
   
   1.- To create a network for exchanging expertise and complementary knowledge between the institutions and individual scientists working on climate change issues in regions with large inland water bodies, which will operate to their mutual benefit and increase their research capacity.
   
   In addition, with respect to the Russian partnership we will:
   2.- Focus on the study of the Aral, Black and Caspian seas in Central Eurasia, one of the most active regions for climate change according to the projection of surface temperatures for all 4IPCC scenarios, and for which there is a scarcity of data. The scientific objectives are:
   2.1.- To provide a sound quantitative assessment of climatic change effects on inland seas and large lakes, as confined water bodies particularly vulnerable to climatic and anthropogenic impacts.
   2.2.- To identify the major feedback processes controlling interrelations between the physical state of the inland seas and ongoing trends in atmospheric forcing on a regional scale.
   2.3.- To establish conceptual links between contemporary climate variability and climate change trends over the last 150 years as reflected in bottom sediment records from the inland seas, in order to obtain a wider view of how the relationship between climate and inland seas works.
   2.4.- To deepen the study of key processes for the assessment of climate change, especially those which are specific to inland seas and their surrounding areas.
   With regard to 2.4, the participation of the US institution will help with the undertaking of laboratory experiments relating to mixing processes.
   
   Finally, we would expect IRSIS actions to help to:
   3.- Strengthen the objectives of nationally funded research projects which are related to this proposal in some way, and widen the perspectives towards future calls at either the national or European level.
   
   The partners in the exchange programme are:
   The University of Girona (UdG), Spain, Elena Roget Brunel University (BRUN), London, UK, Suzanne Leroy The University of Liverpool (ULIV), UK, Fabienne Marret The Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (SIO), Moscow, Russia, Peter Zavialov The Hydrometeorological Centre of the Russian Federation (RHMC), Moscow, Russia, Roman M. Vilfand and Valentina Khan Arizona State University (ASU), Tempe, USA, H. Joseph S. Fernando

B. Three Research Projects in Turkey

1. Lake Manyas (also called lake Kuc lake), coring campaign of summer 1998, funded by NATO
2. Lake Ulubat (also called Uluabat and Apolyont), coring campaign in summer 2002 and 2004, funded by NATO
3. The EU-RELIEF project contract EV1-CT-002-00069.
   Title: Large Earthquake Faulting and Implications for the Seismic Hazard Assessment in Europe: The Izmit-Duzce earthquake sequence of August-November 1999 (Turkey, Mw 7.4, 7.1)
   Within the RELIEF project, Brunel has responsibility for one work package (Earthquake Phenomena). We worked on two key deliverables within that work package, namely (1) analysis of lake cores and analysis of tsunami sediments. This involved both field-based collection of geological samples in and their subsequent laboratory analysis at Brunel. Three coring campaigns took place in summer 2003 and 2004 in Lake Sapanca and the Hercek lagoon.

C. Environmental catastrophes

Funded by IGCP 490, British Academy, PAGES INQUA and ICSU.

IGCP 490 - The role of Holocene environmental catastrophes in human history

This project (2003-2007) focuses on the inter-disciplinary investigation of Holocene geological catastrophes, which are of importance for civilizations and ecosystems. Presently, there is no nationally or internationally equivalent group dealing with this topic. Joining the efforts of the several international organizations such as IUGS, INQUA, UNESCO, and IGBP will create a new synergy. The project is concerned with environmental events since the beginning of the Holocene (the last 11,500 calendar years) excluding therefore the influence of the glacial-interglacial cycles.

Three time scales will be considered:

1. the Holocene when major natural hazards are mostly known from sedimentary records;
2. the last 5-4000 years for which we have written documents;
3. the last couple of centuries with instrumental records.

Importantly, the project will examine how quickly ecosystems and civilisations are able to recover from catastrophic events. With the growing recognition that major natural events can have abrupt global impacts, this project is a timely opportunity to assess the sensitivity of modern society to extreme natural threats. The project will involve the geoscience community, but also biologists, archaeologists, historians, meteorologists and astrophysicists.

Dark nature - rapid natural change and human responses

This an ICSU-funded project for 2004 and 2005, awarded to a consortium of organizations headed by IUGS (International Geological Sciences through its GEOINDICATOR Initiative), and including

IGU, IUGG, INQUA, IGBP

Despite the widespread influence of human actions, nature is also capable of rapid and dramatic change. Throughout our planet's geological history, its capacity for abrupt environmental change has provided the background and, commonly, the drivers for evolution. Such natural (i.e. non-human) actions have shaped the physical (abiotic) environment through its interference with lake and sea levels, river channels and sediment load, slope stability, ground subsidence, frozen ground activity and desertification. We refer to the potential for the natural environment to inflict harmful damage as "dark nature", and highlight that these actions can occur on timescales of concern to society - that is, over a period of 100 years or less. Such "rapid" environmental disturbances to ecosystems and communities include not only instantaneous catastrophes but also slow-onset, more pervasive changes to the environment, such as climate change.

D. Past Caspian Sea levels

Funding received for organising conferences: IGCP 481 ‘CASPAGE: Dating Caspian Sea Level Change’ and IGCP 521 ‘Black Sea-Mediterranean Corridor during the last 30 ky: sea level change and human adaptation’
www.caspage.citg.tudelft.nl
www.avalon-institute.org/IGCP/

Research:

After establishing the taxonomy of the dinoflagellate cysts in the Caspian Sea (Marret et al., 2004), it has been possible to produce sequences of environmental changes through the Holocene and Lateglacial with the emphasis on reconstructing past salinities and past sea level changes (leroy et al., 1997).

Collaborations with France on an INCO-Copernicus project with Dr Francoise Gasse and with the Iranian National centre of Oceanography (Dr Hamid Lahijani).

Main grants

• 2010-11, British Council, BIRAX, British Israeli partnership, “Resolving the deposition pattern of the Dead Sea laminae and its implication for understanding hydro-climatic short-term variations in the Levant”.
• 2010-14: Marie Curie IRSES CLIMSEAS “Climate Change and Inland Seas: Phenomena, Feedback and Uncertainties. The Physical Science Basis”.
• Nov 2010- Oct 2011: British Academy, small research grant, ‘From the point of view of an archaeologist, can Triticum urartu be identified by pollen analysis?‘.
• March to June 2008: British Council, British Chevening Scholarship for Dr Hassan Elekon to work on global warming and fish catches in the Turkish Black Sea.
• from January 2007-present, Ministry of Education and Sciences, Madrid, Spain on “Palaeodiversity: palaeoflora and palaeovegetation of Iberia in the Pliocene and Quaternary”. Leroy is participant, J. Carrion is leader
• 2007-2008: Iranian National Center for Oceanography (INCO) on “Pollution Record Due to Caspian Sea- Level Rise in Coastal Lagoon of Guilan Province” funded by the Center for International Scientific Studies & Collaboration (CISSC), leader H. Lahijani, instructor S. Leroy.
• 01.09.2007 - 31.08.2008: Max Plank Institute for Meteorology-Hamburg: Refugia for trees during the Last Glacial Maximum in Eurasia. Klaus Arpe, Suzanne Leroy and Uwe Mikolajewicz. Computer time: 1000 CPU hours.
• 2004-2005, ICSU Grant, category I, on " Dark nature: rapid natural change and human response <http://www.mun.ca/canqua/ICSU-DN/ICSU-DN_aims.htm> ". PI: S. Leroy.
• May 2003 Leverhulme Trust pilot project on "Earthquake limnology: Holocene seismic signature in lakes along the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey". Suzanne Leroy
• 2003-2007 UNESCO-IGCP 490 <http://www.mun.ca/canqua/igcp490/> project grant on "The role of Holocene environmental catastrophes in human history", Suzanne Leroy leader with I. Stewart <http://www.mun.ca/canqua/igcp490/mauritania.html> for information on the meeting in Mauritania, January 2004
• 2003-2007 UNESCO-IGCP 481 project grant on "Dating Caspian Sea Level Change" <http://www.caspage.citg.tudelft.nl/> , leader: prof. S. Kroonenberg, deputy project leader: S. Leroy.
• Dec. 02-Nov. 04: EU-RELIEF "Large earthquake faulting and implications for the Seismic hazard assessment in Europe: the Izmit-Duzce earthquake sequence of Aug.-Nov. 1999 (Turkey, Mw 7.4, 7.1)", partner 3
• Aug. 02: IUGS-Geoindicators, conference organization grant
• 2002 to 2004 leader of NATO-CLG, Byzantine seismic catastrophe from a multidisciplinary sediment analyses in lake Ulubat (Turkey)?
• 06 to 08.99: scientific consultant in a US-NSF grant: "Socio-economic structure of Bronze Age pastoralists on the Samara River, Russia." PI: D. Anthony
• 1999 to 2000: Royal Society China Exchanges, a post-doctoral fellowship for Wenying Jiang, on "Palaeoclimatic changes in northeastern China during the Holocene"
• 01-08-98 to 30-09-99: leader of NATO Collaborative Research Grant on "Lake Manyas (Turkey), sensitivity to environmental changes during the last millenia"
• 1997 to 1999: grant holder as subcontractor for pollen analyses in deep-sea cores of the Caspian Sea. Project leader: Dr F. Gasse, Paris, France. EU-INCO-Copernicus

• the processes which cause environmental change, especially rapid climatic change,
• methods of measurement of environmental change, and how future change is predicted
• the complex nature of interactions between humans and the environment

I deliver most of the module, with contributions from an IfE colleague on very old geological climatic change and from a senior scientist on modelling of future climate.

Following a sampling visit to Black Park (Buckimghamshire), both qualitative and quantitative analyses are carried out in our Earth Sciences laboratories to extract, analyse and interpret proxies of past environmental conditions found in soils, peats and lake muds. This exercise has the following aims:

• teach students a series of field techniques (observation of the environment, description of the vegetation of sampling station, sampllng with a corer and a grab)
• teach students a series of laboratory techniques, such as sieving use of microscopy, keys of identification, interpretation of a dataset
• to show the students the strengths and the limitations inherent to each proxy technique (versus model data). So that they are better able to critical evaluate data of past climate change.

We have one site visit to the European Centre of Medium Range Weather Forecast in Reading following by a visit to the Department of Meteorology of the University of Reading about climate modelling and weather data.

Contribution to other modules on: invasive species, epidemics of the past, global warming in summary (to Politics students), natural hazards and impact on civilisations, communication of science

Contributions to learned societies

• since March 2010: expert reviewer for the WG1 reports for IPCC-AR5
• summer 2011: evaluator for the Romanian Research Assessment Exercise in summer 2011 for the geology and geography panel (55 Romanian universities, 20,000 researchers)
• full member of the NERC Peer Review College 2010-2013
• from 2010 to 2012: Member of the ESF Pool of Referees
• 2007-2011 INQUA (International Quaternary Association):
• Vice President of TERPRO overseeing the Natural Hazards discipline
• 2003-2007 INQUA (International Quaternary Association):
• Full member of the Commission of Palaeobiology and Human Evolution
• 1999-2003, INQUA (International Quaternary):
• secretary of the Holocene commission
• leader of one of the INQUA working groups in the Palaeoclimate commission: Vegetation successions at the scale of Milankovitch cycles in between 2.6 and 0.9 Ma
• 1995-1999, INQUA (International Quaternary):
• secretary of the Holocene commission
• leader of one of the INQUA working groups in the Palaeoclimate commission: Vegetation successions at the scale of Milankovitch cycles in between 2.6 and 0.9 Ma
• member of the INQUA Congress Scientific Programme Committee
• PAGES (Past Global Change, a core project of International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme)
• member of the task force on lake drilling 1994- 2002

Evaluations and reviews

• Peer review for many impact factor journals; Quaternary Science Reviews, The Holocene, Quaternary International, Boreas, PNAS, Paleo-3, Journal of Quaternary Research, Review of Palynology and Palaeobotany, Quaternary Research, Marine Geology, Journal of Biogeography, Journal of Arid Environment, Journal of Archaeological Science, Journal of Paleolimnology…
• Peer-review of grant applications: The Leverhulme Trust, National Geographical Society, NSF, ESF, British Academy, NERC
• Evaluator for the EU Marie Curie programme

Publications

Journal Papers

(2013) Naderi Beni, A., Lahijani, H., Moussavi Harami, R., Leroy, SAG., Shah-Hosseini, M., Kabiri, K. and Tavakoli, V., Development of spit-lagoon complexes in response to Little Ice Age rapid sea-level changes in the central Guilan coast, South Caspian Sea, Iran, Geomorphology 187 11- 26

(2013) Tudryn, A., Chalié, F., Lavrushin, YA., Antipov, MP., Spiridonova, EA., Lavrushin, V., Tucholka, P. and Leroy, SAG., Late Quaternary Caspian Sea environment: Late Khazarian and Early Khvalynian transgressions from the lower reaches of the Volga River, Quaternary International 292 193- 204

(2013) Ocakoǧlu, F., Kir, O., Yilmaz, IÖ., Açikalin, S., Erayik, C., Tunoǧlu, C. and Leroy, SAG., Early to Mid-Holocene Lake level and temperature records from the terraces of Lake Sünnet in NW Turkey, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 369 175- 184

(2012) Pierret, MC., Chabaux, F., Leroy, SAG. and Causse, C., A record of Late Quaternary continental weathering in the sediment of the Caspian Sea: Evidence from U-Th, Sr isotopes, trace element and palynological data, Quaternary Science Reviews 51 40- 55

(2012) Costa, PJM., Leroy, SAG., Dinis, JL., Dawson, AG. and Kortekaas, S., Recent high-energy marine events in the sediments of the Lagoa de Óbidos and Martinhal (Portugal): Recognition, age and likely causes, Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 12 (5) : 1367- 1380

(2012) Mischke, S., Schudack, U., Bertrand, S. and Leroy, SAG., Ostracods from a Marmara Sea lagoon (Turkey) as tsunami indicators, Quaternary International 261 156- 161 Download publication

(2011) Arpe, K., Leroy, SAG., Lahijani, H. and Khan, V., Impact of the European Russia drought in 2010 on the Caspian Sea level, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 8 7781- 7803 Download publication

(2011) Bertrand, S., Doner, L., On, SA., Sancar, U., Schudack, U., Mischke, S., Cagatay, MN. and Leroy, SAG., Sedimentary record of coseismic subsidence in Hersek coastal lagoon (Izmit Bay, Turkey) and the late Holocene activity of the North Anatolian Fault, Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 12Q06002 Download publication

(2011) Leroy, SAG., Arpe, K. and Mikolajewicz, U., Vegetation context and climatic limits of the Early Pleistocene hominin dispersal in Europe, Quaternary Science Reviews 30 (11-12) : 1448- 1463 Download publication

(2011) Moir, AK., Leroy, SAG. and Helama, S., Role of substrate on the dendroclimatic response of Scots pine from varying elevations in Northern Scotland, Canadian Journal of Forest Research 41 (4) : 822- 838

(2011) Leroy, SAG., Lahijani, HAK., Djamali, M., Naqinezhad, A., Moghadam, MV., Arpe, K., Shah-Hosseini, M., Hosseindoust, M., Miller, C., Tavakoli, V., Habibi, P. and Naderi-Beni, M., Late little ice age palaeoenvironmental records from the Anzali and Amirkola lagoons (South Caspian Sea): Vegetation and sea level changes, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 302 (3-4) : 415- 434 Download publication

(2011) Arpe, K., Leroy, SAG. and Mikolajewicz, U., A comparison of climate simulations for the last glacial maximum with three different versions of the ECHAM model and implications for summer-green tree refugia, Climate of the Past 7 (1) : 91- 114 Download publication

(2011) Mudie, PJ., Leroy, SAG., Marret, F., Gerasimenko, NP., Kholeif, SEA., Sapelko, T. and Filipova-Marinova, M., Nonpollen palynomorphs: Indicators of salinity and environmental change in the Caspian-Black Sea-Mediterranean corridor, Special Paper of the Geological Society of America (473) : 89- 115

(2010) Yanko-Hombach, V., Kroonenberg, S. and Leroy, SAG., Caspian-Black Sea-Mediterranean corridors during the last 30 ka: Sea level change and human adaptive strategies Proceedings of IGCP 521 and 481-INQUA 501 Third Plenary Meeting and Field Trip, Quaternary International 225 (2) : 147- 149

(2010) Carrion, JS. and Leroy, SAG., Preface - Iberian floras through time: Land of diversity and survival, Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 162 (3) : 227- 230

(2010) González-Sampériz, P., Leroy, SAG., Carrión, JS., Fernández, S., García-Antón, M., Gil-García, MJ., Uzquiano, P., Valero-Garcés, B. and Figueiral, I., Steppes, savannahs, forests and phytodiversity reservoirs during the Pleistocene in the Iberian Peninsula, Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 162 (3) : 427- 457 Download publication

(2010) Lahijani, H., Leroy, S., Beni, MN. and Arpe, K., Blaze in Volga: Is it a critical point for the fall in Caspian Sea level?, Episodes 33 (3) : 208- 208

(2010) Moir, A., Leroy, S., Brown, D. and Collins, PEF., Dendroecological inferences for a lower water table on peatland around 3200-3000BC from sub-fossil Pine in northern Scotland, The Holocene 20 (6) : 931- 942

(2010) Neumann, FH., Kagan, EJ., Leroy, SAG. and Baruch, U., Vegetation history and climate fluctuations on a transect along the Dead Sea west shore and their impact on past societies over the last 3500 years, Journal of Arid Environments 74 (7) : 756- 764

(2010) Leroy, SAG., Marco, S., Bookman, R. and Miller, CS., Impact of earthquakes on agriculture during the Roman-Byzantine period from pollen records of the Dead Sea laminated sediment, Quaternary Research 73 (2) : 191- 200 Download publication

(2010) Gurbuz, A. and Leroy, SAG., Science versus myth: Was there a connection between the Marmara Sea and Lake Sapanca?, Journal of Quaternary Science 25 (2) : 103- 114

(2010) Mischke, S., Schudack, U., Bertrand, S. and Leroy, SAG., Ostracods from a Marmara Sea lagoon (Turkey) as tsunami indicators, Quaternary International 261 156- 161 Download publication

(2010) Leroy, SAG. and Albay, M., Palynomorphs of brackish and marine species in cores from the freshwater Lake Sapanca, NW Turkey, Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 160 (3-4) : 181- 188 Download publication

(2010) Leroy, SAG., Pollen analysis of core DS7-1SC (Dead Sea) showing intertwined effects of climatic change and human activities in the Late Holocene, Journal of Archaeological Science 37 (2) : 306- 316 Download publication

(2010) Leroy, SAG., Schwab, MJ. and Costa, PJM., Seismic influence on the last 1500-year infill history of Lake Sapanca (N-W Turkey, North Anatolian Fault), Tectonophysics 486 (1-4) : 15- 27 Download publication

(2010) Kazanci, N., Leroy, SAG., Öncel, S., İleri, O., Toprak, Ö., Costa, P., Sayılı, S., Turgut, C. and Kibar, M., Wind control on the accumulation of heavy metals in sediment of Lake Ulubat, Anatolia, Turkey, Journal of Paleolimnology 43 (1) : 89- 110 Download publication

(2009) Leroy, SAG., Boyraz, S. and Gurbuz, A., High-resolution palynological analysis in Lake Sapanca as a tool to detect recent earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault, Quaternary Science Reviews 28 (25-26) : 2616- 2632 Download publication

(2009) Schwab, MJ., Werner, P., Dulski, P., Mcgee, E., Nowaczyk, NR., Bertrand, S. and Leroy, SAG., Palaeolimnology of Lake Sapanca and identification of historic earthquake signals, Northern Anatolian Fault Zone (Turkey), Quaternary Science Reviews 28 (11-12) : 991- 1005 Download publication

(2009) Cordova, CE., Harrison, SP., Mudie, PJ., Riehl, S., Leroy, SAG. and Ortiz, N., Pollen, plant macrofossil and charcoal records for palaeovegetation reconstruction in the Mediterranean-Black Sea Corridor since the Last Glacial Maximum, Quarternary International 197 (1-2) : 12- 26

(2009) Arpe, K. and Leroy, SAG., Atlantic hurricanes-Testing impacts of local SSTs, ENSO, stratospheric QBO-Implications for global warming, Quarternary International 195 (1-2) : 4- 14 Download publication

(2009) Leroy, SAG. and Niemi, TM., Preface - Hurricanes and typhoons: From the field records to the forecast, Quarternary International 195 (1-2) : 1- 3

(2009) Djamali, M., de Beaulieu, JL., Campagne, P., Andrieu-Ponel, V., Ponel, P., Leroy, SAG. and Akhani, H., Modern pollen rain-vegetation relationships along a forest-steppe transect in the Golestan National Park, NE Iran, Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 153 (3-4) : 272- 281 Download publication

(2009) Mertens, KN., Ribeiro, S., Bouimetarhan, I., Caner, H., Nebout, NC., Dale, B., De Vernal, A., Ellegaard, M., Filipova, M., Godhe, A., Goubert, E., Grosfjeld, K., Holzwarth, U., Kotthoff, U., Leroy, SAG., Londeix, L., Marret, F., Matsuoka, K., Mudie, PJ., Naudts, L., Pena-Manjarrez, JL., Persson, A., Popescu, SM., Pospelova, V., Sangiorgi, F., van der Meer, MTJ., Vink, A., Zonneveld, KAF., Vercauteren, D., Vlassenbroeck, J. and Louwye, S., Process length variation in cysts of a dinoflagellate, Lingulodinium machaerophorum, in surface sediments: Investigating its potential as salinity proxy, Marine Micropaleontology 70 (1-2) : 54- 69 Download publication

(2008) Leroy, SAG., Vegetation cycles in a disturbed sequence around the Cobb-Mountain subchron in Catalonia (Spain), Journal of Paleolimnology 40 (3) : 851- 868 Download publication

(2008) Djamali, M., de Beaulieu, JL., Shah-Hosseini, M., Andrieu-Ponel, V., Ponel, P., Amini, A., Akhani, H., Leroy, SAG., Stevens, L., Lahijam, H. and Brewer, S., A late Pleistocene long pollen record from Lake Urmia, NW Iran, Quaternary Research 69 (3) : 413- 420 Download publication

(2008) Jiang, WY., Leroy, SAG., Ogle, N., Chu, GQ., Wang, L. and Liu, JQ., Natural and anthropogenic forest fires recorded in the Holocene pollen record from a Jinchuan peat bog, northeastern China, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 261 (1-2) : 47- 57 Download publication

(2008) Proske, U., Hanebuth, TJJ., Meggers, H. and Leroy, SAG., Tidal flat sedimentation during the last millennium in the northern area of Tidra Island, Banc d'Arguin, Mauritania, Journal of African Earth Sciences 50 (1) : 37- 48

(2007) Leroy, SAG. and Arpe, K., Glacial refugia for summer-green trees in Europe and south-west Asia as proposed by ECHAM3 time-slice atmospheric model simulations, Journal of Biogeography 34 (12) : 2115- 2128

(2007) Leroy, SAG., Progress in palynology of the Gelasian–Calabrian Stages in Europe: Ten messages (Progrès dans la palynologie des étages Gélasien et Calabrien en Europe : Dix messages), Revue de Micropaléontologie 50 (4) : 293- 308 Download publication

(2007) Leroy, SAG., Marret, F., Gibert, E., Chalie, F., Reyss, JL. and Arpe, K., River inflow and salinity changes in the Caspian Sea during the last 5500 years, Quaternary Science Reviews 26 (25-28) : 3359- 3383 Download publication

(2007) Leroy, SAG., Michetti, AM. and Pasquare, FA., Dark nature, Quaternary International 173-174 1- 3

(2007) Arpe, K. and Leroy, SAG., The Caspian Sea Level forced by the atmospheric circulation, as observed and modelled, Quaternary International 173-174 144- 152 Download publication

(2007) Westgarth-Smith, AR., Leroy, SAG., Collins, PEF. and Harrington, R., Temporal variations in English populations of a forest insect pest, the green spruce aphid (Elatobium abietinum), associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and global warming, Quaternary International 173-174 153- 160 Download publication

(2006) Leroy, SAG., From natural hazard to environmental catastrophe: Past and present, Quaternary International 158 (1) : 4- 12 Download publication

(2006) Piovano, EL., Villalba, R. and Leroy, SAG., Holocene environmental catastrophes in South America: From the lowlands to the Andes, Quaternary International 158 (1) : 1- 3

(2006) Leroy, SAG. and Simms, MJ., Iron age to medieval entomogamous vegetation and Rhinolophus hipposideros roost in South-Eastern Wales (UK), Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 237 (1) : 4- 18 Download publication

(2006) Leroy, SAG., Jousse, H. and Cremaschi, M., Dark nature: Responses of humans and ecosystems to rapid environmental changes, Quaternary International 151 (1) : 1- 2

(2006) Leroy, SAG., Jousse, H. and Cremaschi, M., Editorial - Impact of rapid environmental changes on humans and ecosystems, Quaternary International 150 (1) : 1- 2

(2006) Leroy, SAG., Marret, F., Giralt, S. and Bulatov, SA., Natural and anthropogenic rapid changes in the Kara-Bogaz Gol over the last two centuries reconstructed from palynological analyses and a comparison to instrumental records, Quaternary International 150 (1) : 52- 70 Download publication

(2006) Hooghiemstra, H., Lezine, AM., Leroy, SAG., Dupont, L. and Marret, F., Late Quaternary palynology in marine sediments: A synthesis of the understanding of pollen distribution patterns in the NW African setting, Quaternary International 148 (1) : 29- 44

(2006) Kazanci, N., Toprak, O., Leroy, SAG., Oncel, S., Ileri, O., Emre, O., Costa, P., Erturac, K. and McGee, E., Boron content of Lake Ulubat sediment: A key to interpret the morphological history of NW Anatolia, Turkey, Applied Geochemistry 21 (1) : 134- 151 Download publication

(2005) Piovano, E. and Leroy, S., Holocene environmental catastrophes in South America: From the Lowlands to the Andes, Episodes 28 (4) : 296- 296

(2005) Leroy, SAG., 1st joint meeting of IGCP 490 and ICSU on rapid and catastrophic environmental changes and the human response: Mauritania, January 4-18, 2004, Episodes: Journal of International Geoscience 28 (1) : 52-

(2005) Leroy, SAG., Westgarth-Smith, AR., Collins, PEF. and Roy, DB., Mechanisms for the control of U.K. butterfly abundance by the North Atlantic Oscillation, Antenna 29 257- 266 Download publication

(2005) Westgarth-Smith, AR., Leroy, SAG., Collins, PEF. and Roy, DB., The North Atlantic Oscillation and UK butterfly life cycles, pigmentation, morphology, behaviour and conservation, Antenna 29 186- 196 Download publication

(2005) Westgarth-Smith, AR., Leroy, SAG. and Collins, PEF., The North Atlantic Oscillation and UK butterfly populations, Biologist 52 (5) : 273- 276 Download publication

(2004) Kazanci, N., Leroy, S., Ileri, O., Emre, O., Kibar, M. and Oncel, S., Late holocene erosion in NW Anatolia from sediments of Lake Manyas, Lake Ulubat and the southern shelf of the Marmara Sea, Turkey, CATENA 57 (3) : 277- 308 Download publication

(2004) Kazanci, N., Gulbabazadeh, T., Leroy, SAG. and Ileri, O., Sedimentary and environmental characteristics of the Gilan-Mazenderan plain, northern Iran: influence of long- and short-term Caspian water level fluctuations on geomorphology, Journal of Marine Systems 46 (1-4) : 145- 168 Download publication

(2004) Marret, F., Leroy, S., Chalie, F. and Gasse, F., New organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts from recent sediments of Central Asian seas, Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 129 (1-2) : 1- 20 Download publication

(2003) Leroy, S., "Dark nature" - Rapid natural changes, catastrophes, and human responses, Episodes 26 (4) : 326- 326

(2003) Giralt, S., Julia, R., Leroy, S. and Gasse, F., Cyclic water level oscillations of the KaraBogazGol-Caspian Sea system, Earth and Planetary Science Letters 212 (1-2) : 225- 239

(2002) Leroy, S., Kazancı, N., Ìleri, Ö., Kibar, M., Emre, O., McGee, E. and Griffiths, HI., Abrupt environmental changes within a late Holocene lacustrine sequence south of the Marmara Sea (Lake Manyas, N-W Turkey): Possible links with seismic events, Marine Geology 190 (1-2) : 531- 552 Download publication

(2000) Leroy, SAG., Zolitschka, B., Negendank, JFW. and Seret, G., Palynological analyses in the laminated sediment of Lake Holzmaar (Eifel, Germany): Duration of Lateglacial and Preboreal biozones, Boreas 29 (1) : 52- 71

(1997) Leroy, SAG., Climatic and non-climatic lake-level changes inferred from a Plio-Pleistocene lacustrine complex of Catalonia (Spain): Palynology of the Tres Pins sequences, Journal of Paleolimnology 17 (4) : 347- 367

(1997) Leroy, SAG. and Dupont, LM., Marine palynology of the ODP site 658 (N-W Africa) and its contribution to the stratigraphy of Late Pliocene, Geobios 30 (3) : 351- 359

(1997) Heim, C., Nowaczyk, NR., Negendank, JFW., Leroy, SAG. and Ben-Avraham, Z., Near East desertification: Evidence from the Dead Sea, Naturwissenschaften 84 (9) : 398- 401

(1997) Suc, J-P., Bertini, A., Leroy, SAG. and Suballyova, D., Towards the lowering of the Pliocene/Pleistocene boundary to the Gauss-Matuyama reversal, Quaternary International 40 (1) : 37- 42

(1996) Leroy, SAG. and Roiron, P., Latest pliocene pollen and leaf floras from Bernasso palaeolake (Escandorgue Massif, Herault, France), Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 94 (3-4) : 295- 328

(1996) Leroy, SAG., Giralt, S., Francus, P. and Seret, G., The high sensitivity of the palynological record in the Vico maar la custrin sequence (Latium, Italy) highlights the climatic gradient through Europe for the last 90 ka, Quaternary Science Reviews 15 (2-3) : 189- 201

(1995) Løvlie, R. and Leroy, S., Magnetostratigraphy of Lower Pleistocene Banyoles palaeolake carbonate sediments from Catalonia, NE Spain: Evidence for relocation of the Cobb Mountain sub-chron, Quaternary Science Reviews 14 (5) : 473- 485

(1992) Leroy, SAG., Palynological evidence of Azolla nilotica Dec. in recent Holocene of the eastern Nile Delta and palaeoenvironment, Vegetation History and Archaeobotany 1 (1) : 43- 52

Conference Papers

(2004) Leroy, S. and Costa, P., Environmental catastrophes in Mauritania, the desert and the coast (Volume of abstracts and field guide), ICSU Dark Nature - IGCP490: First joint meeting Download publication

(2002) Leroy, S. and Stewart, I., Environmental catastrophes and recovery in the Holocene (Volume of abstracts), Environmental catastrophes and recovery in the Holocene conference Download publication

(1997) Leroy, S. and Ravazzi, C., Inter-INQUA colloquium on Milankovitch and Plio-Pleistocene vegetation succession from 2.6 to 0.9 Ma (Volume of abstracts and guidebook),