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Norway's example suggests 'Brexit' risk

Leaving the European Union could lead to reduced international trade and investment while forfeiting its political benefits, according to Brunel’s Professor Nauro Campos.

Appearing on France24 this week, Prof Campos said that his research into Norway’s own EU arrangement as an outsider had suggested risky parallels should the UK consider a so-called ‘Brexit’ from the Union.

He discussed the history of the UK in the EU and argued that one of the main benefits for Britain to have joined was to freeze its relative economic gap.

The UK’s per capita GDP relative to the EU founding members’ declined steadily from 1945 to 1972. However, after the UK joined in 1973 it became relatively stable until the Euro Crisis. This suggests substantial benefits from EU membership especially considering that, by sponsoring an overpowered integration model, Britain joined too late, at a bad moment in time, and at an avoidably larger cost.

Prof Campos, a Professor in Economics at Brunel University London, said that the Norwegian experience demonstrated diminished international trade, foreign investment, financial globalisation and migration, but also that the losses are likely to be augmented by forfeiting politically-driven benefits.

The interview was broadcast live on France24's 8pm programme on June 9th.