A new policy brief published by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) employs a refugee return forecasting model developed by researchers in the Department of Computer Science at Brunel University of London, in partnership with UNHCR. The findings provide important insights to guide recovery and reconstruction planning amid ongoing war and uncertainty.
The model uses agent-based modelling and represents individual refugees as agents with distinct demographic and socio-economic characteristics. Its behavioural assumptions are based on successive rounds of UNHCR intentions surveys. The model highlights how the macro return trend emerges from individual decisions in each scenario.
In this latest release, the refined model incorporates updated data and refined behavioural mechanisms. It has also undergone independent technical and scientific reviews, improving the robustness and policy relevance of the modelling results. The model is designed to explore how refugee decision-making and behaviour may evolve across population groups, locations and scenarios as conditions change. Simulations were performed using the SEAVEA toolkit and the ARCHER2 supercomputer at EPCC in Edinburgh, UK.
The research was led by Dr Derek Groen, with team members Dr Diana Suleimenova, Dr Yani Xue, and Dr Laura Harbach.
Further information
UNHCR Policy Brief No. 2: Forecasting Refugee Return to Ukraine amid Ongoing War and Uncertainty