Brunel Researchers Collaborate with UNHCR on Developing Forecasting Model for Future Refugee Returns to Ukraine

Brunel University London has collaborated with the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) to develop an innovative agent-based modelling prototype that forecasts possible future returns of Ukrainian refugees. The Brunel research team is led by Dr Derek Groen, and other members include Dr Diana Suleimenova, Dr Yani Xue, and Dr Laura Harbach from the Department of Computer Science.

The model and an accompanying policy brief were released ahead of the fourth Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome on 10-11 July. The model provides a powerful tool to understand potential return patterns under different hypothetical scenarios and to support government policymakers, as well as other stakeholders and contributors, in recovery planning and prioritisation.

This prototype has been developed with support from an informal advisory board, including technical experts from international financial institutions and development actors, concerned EU Directorates, Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy and the Kyiv School of Economics.

For further information, visit:

• UNHCR Press Release: Ahead of the 4th Ukraine Recovery Conference, UNHCR shares new forecasting model and policy brief on future returns of Ukrainian refugees
• UNHCR Policy Brief: Forecasting refugee return to Ukraine amid ongoing war and uncertainty