Start at 15:30 via Zoom (joining instructions follow below).
ABSCTRACT: In this talk, I will propose a continuous-time stochastic intensity model, namely the two-phase dynamic contagion process, for modelling the epidemic contagion of COVID-19. The dynamic contagion process is a branching process which is an extension of the classical Hawkes process commonly used for modelling earthquakes and more recently financial contagion. In contrast to most existing models, this model allows randomness to the infectivity of individuals rather than a constant reproductive rate as assumed by standard models. Key epidemiological quantities such as the distribution of final epidemic size and expected epidemic duration have been derived and estimated based on real data for various regions and countries. The time that governmental intervention became effective is estimated and the results are consistent with the actual time of intervention and incubation time of the disease. The purpose of this talk will be to introduce the model and to show that this model could potentially be a valuable tool in the modelling of COVID-19 infection. Similar variations of this model could also be used in more general epidemiological modelling.
Join Zoom Meeting: https://bruneluniversity.zoom.us/j/98209870169
- Meeting ID: 982 0987 0169
- Password: 6659222909